Interest rates and bond yields, not artificial intelligence, are the biggest risk to growth in the eyes of wealthy families at Deutsche Bank’s Emerging Markets Family Office Forum 2026 in Singapore. In a poll of forum guests released on 7 October, Reuters reported, 37% picked rates and yields, 23% inflation and 17% AI. Asked which region looks most stable over the next 12 months, 73% chose Asia.
It was a vote in a conference room, not a scientific survey. Still, it shows the mood of people who decide how family money is invested.
What the Deutsche Bank poll found
The forum hosted about 200 family offices and wealthy individuals, according to Reuters, which does not say how many voted on each question.
- Biggest risk to growth: rates and bond yields 37%, inflation 23%, AI 17%.
- Most stable region over the next 12 months: Asia 73%, the United States 14%, the UK and Europe 6%, Latin America 4%, the Middle East 2%.
Marco Pagliara, head of emerging markets at Deutsche Bank Private Bank, said families are looking for “stability, risk mitigation strategies and global connectivity,” and named Singapore as one of the leading choices for a global wealth hub. (Our Singapore family office guide covers the rules there.) Deutsche Bank’s private bank managed €732 billion as of 30 June.
Why rates and bond yields worry family offices
The backdrop: on 16 September 2026 the US Federal Reserve raised its target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter point, to 3.75% to 4%, saying inflation “remains elevated.” Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said long-term yields had risen during 2026 partly because the economy had strengthened.
Higher yields reach a family portfolio in three ways:
- Valuations. A discount rate is the return used to turn future cash into today’s value. When it rises, assets whose payoff lies far ahead, such as private equity, venture stakes and property, are worth less today.
- Borrowing. Credit lines secured on portfolios, and debt inside family companies, cost more.
- Competition. When safe bonds pay more, riskier assets have to promise more to look worth it.
This matters more now that many family offices hold most of their money in private assets: BNY Wealth’s 2026 survey put alternatives at 60% of single family office portfolios.
What to watch
- The Fed’s next decision, after its meeting on 27 and 28 October.
- Whether Deutsche Bank publishes fuller results, with the number of votes per question.
- Whether AI climbs the list of named risks at next year’s forum.
A fair caveat
A poll taken in one room captures one day’s mood, and the guests were not chosen to represent family offices in general. The 2025 forum, held in Hong Kong with about 150 guests according to the bank’s own pages, published results on different questions (61% called the world economy weak, 51% expected a US recession), so the two years cannot be compared directly.
Questions to bring to your advisors
If long-term rates stayed higher for several years, which of our assets would lose the most value? How much of our borrowing is at floating rates, and what would a further rise cost us each year? These are questions to bring to your advisors, not advice.
